An approach to ranking LeBron's opponents in the finals
[sports data analysis python research How to rank the teams
As the title says, this post will attempt to rank LeBron’s opponents in the NBA Finals througout his career. Ranking is always a tough task however, Dean Oliver Basketball on Paper defined a great method to attempt to rank teams that played in different eras. The idea behind it is basically to compare the Offensive and Defensive Ratings to the League’s Average, that way you know how better a certain team was against its competition. As Offensive and Defensive Ratings take into consideration both pace and efficiency, that makes them a great metric to chose for this post.
I’m also comparing regular season ratings which present 2 caveats:
- These ratings definitely change in the playoffs. That’s actualy a good study on its own.
- This year’s season is completely different to anything we’ve seen before where there are too many variables that can skew the data. Another good research perhaps.
Source
Basketball Reference is my vibe.
Comparing the offense:
We have to break down this analysis by offense vs defense but we should be able to “average” the ranks to come up with an overall measurement.
| Teams | Opponent Offensive Rating | League Average Rating | Offensive Increment | Offensive Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 vs. Warriors (Cavs won 4-3) | 114.5 | 106.4 | 8.1 | 1 |
| 2017 vs. Warriors (Cavs lost 4-1) | 115.6 | 108.8 | 6.8 | 2 |
| 2015 vs. Warriors (Cavs lost 4-2) | 111.6 | 105.6 | 6 | 3 |
| 2012 vs. Thunder (Heat won 4-1) | 109.8 | 104.6 | 5.2 | 3 |
| 2018 vs. Warriors (Cavs lost 4-0) | 113.6 | 108.6 | 5 | 5 |
| 2014 vs. Spurs (Heat lost 4-1) | 110.5 | 106.7 | 3.8 | 6 |
| 2007 vs. Spurs (Cavs lost 4-0) | 109.2 | 106.5 | 2.7 | 7 |
| 2011 vs. Mavs (Heat lost 4-2) | 109.7 | 107.3 | 2.4 | 8 |
| 2013 vs. Spurs (Heat won 4-3) | 108.3 | 105.9 | 2.4 | 7 |
| 2020 vs. Heat (Lakers won 4-2) | 112.5 | 110.6 | 1.9 | 10 |
As we can see in the table above, the Warriors teams were LeBron’s toughest opponents offensive-wise with OKC’s former MVPs in the mix. This year’s Heat team would be the worse offensive team LeBron’s played in the Finals. If, and that’s a big if, these numbers tell us something, hopefully they can make up with defense.
Comparing the Defense
| Teams | Opponent Defensive Rating | League Average Rating | Defensive Increment | Defensive Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 vs. Spurs (Cavs lost 4-0) | 99.9 | 106.5 | 6.6 | 1 |
| 2017 vs. Warriors (Cavs lost 4-1) | 104 | 108.8 | 4.8 | 2 |
| 2013 vs. Spurs (Heat won 4-3) | 101.6 | 105.9 | 4.3 | 3 |
| 2014 vs. Spurs (Heat lost 4-1) | 102.4 | 106.7 | 4.3 | 3 |
| 2015 vs. Warriors (Cavs lost 4-2) | 101.4 | 105.6 | 4.2 | 5 |
| 2016 vs. Warriors (Cavs won 4-3) | 103.8 | 106.4 | 2.6 | 6 |
| 2011 vs. Mavs (Heat lost 4-2) | 105 | 107.3 | 2.3 | 7 |
| 2012 vs. Thunder (Heat won 4-1) | 103.2 | 104.6 | 1.4 | 8 |
| 2020 vs. Heat (Lakers won 4-2) | 109.5 | 110.6 | 1.1 | 9 |
| 2018 vs. Warriors (Cavs lost 4-0) | 107.6 | 108.6 | 1 | 10 |
The table above backs up the idea of those Spurs teams being very disciplinate on defense, they were the best defensive teams LeBron has faced (along with the 2017 Warriors).
Comparing the Overall rankings
So I took the median of the ranks and then rank the medians (bars!!!) resulting in the table below (this may not be the best way to do this statistically speaking, but it can give you an idea):
| Teams | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rank | Median Rank | Ranking the medians |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 vs. Warriors (Cavs lost 4-1) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2016 vs. Warriors (Cavs won 4-3) | 1 | 6 | 3.5 | 2 |
| 2015 vs. Warriors (Cavs lost 4-2) | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 2007 vs. Spurs (Cavs lost 4-0) | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 2014 vs. Spurs (Heat lost 4-1) | 6 | 3 | 4.5 | 5 |
| 2013 vs. Spurs (Heat won 4-3) | 9 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 2012 vs. Thunder (Heat won 4-1) | 4 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| 2011 vs. Mavs (Heat lost 4-2) | 8 | 7 | 7.5 | 8 |
| 2018 vs. Warriors (Cavs lost 4-0) | 5 | 10 | 7.5 | 8 |
| 2020 vs. Heat (Lakers won 4-2) | 10 | 9 | 9.5 | 10 |
As it can be seen, this Heat team would be the worst** team LeBron has faced in the finals. Another interesting sight is the 2016 Cavs team beating the 2016 Warriors who have the second overall rank LeBron’s says he’s the GOAT. I need to do this kind of analysis going back a few years, it may lay down interesting results.
Final thoughts
It’s always difficult to rank different teams from different seasons but if you follow the numbers in this post, the 2020 Heat are the worse team LeBron has ever faced in the finals. Can Jimmy “Buckets”, “No Limit” Herro, Bam Adebayo and company beat the Lakers? I think we are up for a hell of a series.